Groundhogs Face Off

Every February 2, thousands of people across the United States take part in a pretty peculiar practice. They look to a groundhog to predict the weather.

Legend has it that if this rodent emerges from its burrow and sees its shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If there is no shadow, spring will arrive early.

Punxsutawney Phil and Staten Island Chuck are two of the most famous of these furry meteorologists—and each has his own devout following.

Every February 2, thousands of people across the United States take part in a pretty peculiar practice. They look to a groundhog to predict the weather.

Legend has it that if this rodent emerges from its burrow and sees its shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If there is no shadow, spring will arrive early.

Punxsutawney Phil and Staten Island Chuck are two of the most famous groundhogs. Each of these furry meteorologists has his own devout following.

Phil hails from Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. He’s predicted the weather in that town every February 2 since 1886—that’s more than 130 years! Crowds of up to 40,000 people come to see Phil on Groundhog Day each winter.

“Phil’s predictions are right 100 percent of the time,” claims Katie Donald, one of his official spokespeople. But meteorologists say the data shows that he’s more like 40 percent correct.

Donald also says that “there has only ever been one Phil.” She says that Phil maintains his longevity by drinking a special groundhog elixir of life. (Fact check: Wild groundhogs typically live between 3 and 6 years, while those in captivity can live up to 14.)

“We don’t really acknowledge any other weather-predicting groundhogs,” says Donald. “They are all imitations.”

Phil is from Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. He has predicted the weather in that town every February 2 since 1886. That’s more than 130 years! Many people come to see Phil on Groundhog Day each winter. There are crowds of up to 40,000 people.

“Phil’s predictions are right 100 percent of the time,” claims Katie Donald. She is one of his official spokespeople. But meteorologists disagree. They say the data shows that Phil is correct more like 40 percent of the time.

Donald also says that “there has only ever been one Phil.” She says that Phil stays healthy by drinking a special groundhog drink. It’s called the elixir of life. (Fact check: Wild groundhogs typically live between 3 and 6 years. Those in captivity can live up to 14 years.) “We don’t really acknowledge any other weather-predicting groundhogs,” says Donald. “They are all imitations.”

One of those “imitations” is Staten Island Chuck. He lives at the Staten Island Zoo in New York City. He’s made predictions since 1981.

Local schoolchildren help determine Chuck’s accuracy. They count the number of days between February 2 and the official start of spring in mid-March in which the temperature is below 40 degrees Fahrenheit. More cold days means a longer winter, and more warm days means an early spring. Then the students compare their results with Chuck’s prediction.

The result? “Out of 36 predictions, Chuck’s been right 28 times,” says Kenneth Mitchell, the director of the Staten Island Zoo. “We like having an independent source verify Chuck,” says Mitchell. “We have a lot of fun with the rivalry with the Phil folks.”

One of those “imitations” is Staten Island Chuck. He lives at the Staten Island Zoo. That is located in New York City. Chuck has made predictions since 1981.

Local schoolchildren help figure out whether Chuck is right. They count the number of days between February 2 and the official start of spring in mid-March. Then they count the number of days during that time when the temperature is below 40 degrees Fahrenheit. More cold days mean a longer winter. More warm days mean an early spring. Then the students compare their results with Chuck’s prediction.

The result? “There have been 36 predictions. Chuck has been right 28 times,” says Kenneth Mitchell. He is the director of the Staten Island Zoo. “We like having an independent source verify Chuck,” says Mitchell. “We have a lot of fun with the rivalry with the Phil folks.”

The crowds that gather each year for Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, are roughly 8 times the size of the town’s population. This means that the town’s population is 1/8 the size of the Groundhog Day crowd. Plot this fraction on the number line below.

Let’s say you decide to try your luck predicting whether or not there will be six more weeks of winter by flipping a coin. You have a 1 out of 2, or 1/2, chance of getting it right. Which number line correctly shows this value?

Punxsutawney Phil has correctly predicted the arrival of spring 2/5 of the time. Plot 2/5 on the number line.

Staten Island Chuck has been right about 4/5 of the time. Plot that fraction on the number line above. Is Chuck more or less accurate than Phil?

Let’s say that for 5 years, you flip a coin to predict whether or not there will be six more weeks of winter. Your method correctly predicts the weather 3 out of 5 years. Write this as a fraction.